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Astronomy News

Will the Tesla roadster collide with Earth?

If you’re concerned about a cherry red fireball from the sky, don’t panic.

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By Alison Klesman  |  Published: Friday, February 16, 2018
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SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket carried Elon Musk’s cherry red Tesla Roadster, manned by a mannequin in a spacesuit named Starman. SpaceX
On February 6, SpaceX wrote a new chapter in the ongoing book on commercial spaceflight with the successful launch of its Falcon Heavy rocket. Along for the ride was Musk’s red Tesla Roadster, which is now on an elliptical orbit around the Sun. But what about the risk to Earth? Could the car, which is estimated to last up to a few tens of millions of years, ever pose the threat of raining down from the sky as a fireball in the future?

The answer, as it turns out, is probably not. A paper posted on Cornell University Library’s arxiv.org preprint server February 13 (and to be submitted to the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society) with the jaunty title The random walk of cars and their collision probabilities with planets concludes that there is just a six percent chance that the Tesla will collide with Earth in the next one million years. The chance does rise to 11 percent in the next three million years; but even if you’re a pessimist, “it will either burn up or maybe one component will reach the surface,” said first author Hanno Rein in a press release. “There is no risk to health and safety whatsoever.”

roadster_orbitsimulator.com
The Roadster’s orbit takes it out just past Mars, then in toward Earth’s orbit. Over the next several million years, it will cross the orbits of Mars, Earth, and Venus several times. Generated on orbitsimulator.com

The authors calculated the probabilities by fast-forwarding the Tesla’s orbit — along with the orbits of the planets — over time and observing whether collisions occurred over the course of many simulations. In addition to the probability of colliding with Earth, they also found only a 2.5 percent chance the Tesla will collide with Venus in the next one million years. Though they predict several close calls with Mars, they don’t believe it is likely to collide with the Red Planet. After three million years, they only observed one collision with the Sun.

The Tesla, which is estimated to rotate about once every five minutes based on reflected light measured with the 4.1-meter SOAR telescope in Chile, is on an orbit that will cross the orbits of not only Earth, but also Venus and Mars, several times over the course of its dynamically stable lifetime. According to Rein, this orbit is not unlike that of many near-Earth Asteroids regularly observed. In fact, the Tesla has been officially labeled by NASA as a Near-Earth Object and listed in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory’s Horizon’s database as object -143205 SpaceX Roadster (spacecraft) (Tesla). It is one of about 150 manmade objects in the database, which allows you to chart any object’s position on the sky. According to the database, the Tesla is currently following an orbit with a perihelion of 0.99 astronomical units (AU, where 1 AU is the Earth-Sun distance) and an aphelion of 1.67 AU (Mars’ average distance from the Sun is about 1.5 AU).

The Tesla’s first close pass of Earth will occur in 2091; after that, it has a 50 percent chance of continuing to orbit for a few tens of millions of years, before it either collides with a planet or falls into the Sun. For now,it’s on its way out past Mars, carrying an appropriate message: Don’t panic.

Astronomy News

THE ROADSTER AND THE STAR CLUSTER

Space Weather News for Feb. 20, 2018
http://spaceweather.com
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THE ROADSTER AND THE STAR CLUSTER: How far away can you see a cherry red Tesla Roadster? Yesterday, a telescope in Chile spotted Elon Musk’s electric car 3.7 million kilometers from Earth as it was passing by star cluster NGC 5694. Using orbital elements published by NASA, amateur astronomers are setting new distance records almost every day as they track the Roadster en route to the orbit of Mars. Visit today’s edition of Spaceweather.com for updates and a movie of the Roadster and the star cluster.

Remember, SpaceWeather.com is on Facebook!

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Above: Glowing feebly like a 20th magnitude star, Starman and the Tesla Roadster pass NGC 5694 on Feb. 19, 2018. More photos of the distant car may be found in Spaceweather.com’s SpaceX photo gallery.
 

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Astronomy News

Starman hits the open road

The launching of Elon Musk’s cherry-red roadster has created a lot of buzz everywhere that NASA never could. Sure, it’s a gimmick, but it’s a gimmick that does wonders for the promotion of space exploration.

 

Some bits of info I’ve picked up here and there.

  1. 1)  Elon Musk’s cherry red Roadster has been spotted 430,000 km from Earth heading toward the orbit of Mars.
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Space Weather News for Feb. 9, 2018
http://spaceweather.com
https://www.facebook.com/spaceweatherdotcomAMATEUR ASTRONOMERS PHOTOGRAPH ROADSTER IN SPACE: “It’s the craziest thing I’ve ever captured in my telescope,” says amateur astronomer Raymond Kneip. Last night, he photographed Elon Musk’s cherry red Roadster 430,000 km from Earth heading toward the orbit of Mars. NASA has just released an ephemeris (celestial coordinates) for the electric car, allowing astronomers to track and photograph the Tesla as it recedes into deep space. Pictures of the Roadster and instructions for accessing NASA’s ephemeris may be found on today’s edition of Spaceweather.com.

Remember, SpaceWeather.com is on Facebook!

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Above: A Tesla Roadster flying among the stars. Photo credit: Raymond Kneip.
 
2) The live feed is no longer live–the batteries in the camera were only good for 6 hours. Sill, if you have not seen the video, take a look, it’s wonderful to watch it drift past the Earth.

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Gotta love the Don’t Panic button, and according to one account, Starman also had a towel with him.

3) Also, he was accompanied by Isaac Asimov’s Foundation series:

SpaceX has just successfully launched its new Falcon Heavy rocket for the first time, and just before launch, the company revealed on its live stream that inside the rather unique cargo of a Tesla Roadster, the company had placed an “Arch” storage system containing Isaac Asimov’s Foundation book series.

An Arch is a “5D, laser optical quartz storage device” that is meant to be able to survive even in the harsh conditions of space, built by the Arch Mission Foundation. The foundation’s goal is to preserve libraries of human knowledge for interstellar travel (and to protect information in the event of calamity to Earth itself). It’s a goal that the group says was inspired by Asimov’s novels, which see mankind working to write an “Encyclopedia Galactica” to protect mankind against a coming dark age.

4) File 770’s Pixel Scroll had one of the greatest lines ever: In Space Nobody Can Hear Your Red Tesla’s GPS Scream “Recalculating!” (Title credit goes to File 770 contributing editor of the day Daniel Dern.]

5) Over on the RASC mailing list, the members are having a fun time discussing tire pressure in space (the physics involved is mind-boggling), and the life of batteries in extreme cold. And shouldn’t the signal light be flashing?

And Russell had to say there is only the one mannequin because if there has also been a femmequin the Starman would have had to deal with a back seat driver.  It’s a red roadster–isn’t it more likely the couple would end up in the back seat?

 

Astronomy News

Launch of the Falcon Heavy

Elon Musk sent his red Tesla roadster into space aboard the world’s most powerful rocket while David Bowie’s Space Oddity blared.

The “driver” is a space suited mannequin. There is a big “Don”t Panic” button on the dashboard.

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https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2018/02/falcon-heavy-launch-spacex-elon-musk-space-science/?

Watch Starman live: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=21&v=aBr2kKAHN6M